If policy forecasts have always been a high-risk exercise, the example of 11 September 2001 illustrates perfectly to what extent the agenda of great powers and international organizations is prone to be transformed almost overnight. At least on the surface and/or in a temporary way. One will thus propose here to highlight some basic lines in European and transatlantic policies, which go beyond the rhetoric and the snapshots.

Transatlantic and European context

First of all, it is worth underlining that neither the French elections of 2007, nor those in the United States in 2008 are bound to alter in a notable way - i.e. in addition to the gestures and effect-based announcements scheduled for these occasions - the traditional orientations of the two countries’ foreign and security policies. Likewise, the calvaries of the new European treaty, the actual rhythm of the EU’s blind rush to enlargement, and the endless transatlantic initiatives based on stylistic changes in Washington are equally secondary from the point of view of the real evolutions in European integration and in our relationship with the United States.

In the field of European-American relations, the fundamental determinant remains the structural tension between two series of antagonistic interests: one (American) aimed at securing overall control and absolute predominance, the other (European) seeking to preserve an autonomous room for manoeuvre. In the short run, one cannot expect to escape from the current stalemate in which the United States is no longer able to prevent Europe from gradually moving towards more independence, while we Europeans are not yet ready to fully accomplish our emancipation.

As regards intra-European divisions at the origin of all these procrastinations, we are faced with what Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker had named “the collision of two philosophies”. In fact, the visions of the Member States are incompatible both with regard to the bases of the part

(Hajnalka Vincze, European defence policy forecast, Népszabadság Online, 15 August 2006 /article based on the author’s paper entitled: Hírlevél, Biztonságpolitikai és Honvédelmi Kutatások Központja, 2006. július, Budapest/, 12,118 characters)